Monday, June 13, 2016

Individual Seats - tables

Missing odds - seats by date
Missing Odds
2016-05-19 O'Connor (WA)
2016-05-20 O'Connor (WA)
2016-06-03 Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-04 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-05 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-06 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-07 Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-09 Lingiari (NT), Solomon (NT)
2016-06-10 Brisbane (QLD), Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-11 Lingiari (NT), Murray (VIC)
2016-06-12 Lingiari (NT), Murray (VIC)
2016-06-13 Lingiari (NT)


Complete list of Seat Odds (in dollars)
Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team PUP
Electorate
Adelaide (SA) 34.0 4.00 51.00 - - 1.33 - - 9.0 -
Aston (VIC) 34.0 1.05 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Ballarat (VIC) 34.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Banks (NSW) 34.0 1.35 51.00 - - 3.00 - - - -
Barker (SA) 34.0 1.05 51.00 - - 26.00 - - 7.0 -
Barton (NSW) 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Bass (TAS) 34.0 1.25 51.00 - - 3.75 - - - -
Batman (VIC) 34.0 34.00 4.00 - - 1.15 - - - -
Bendigo (VIC) 34.0 6.00 51.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Bennelong (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Berowra (NSW) 26.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Blair (QLD) 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Blaxland (NSW) 26.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Bonner (QLD) 34.0 1.44 51.00 - - 2.40 - - - -
Boothby (SA) 34.0 1.15 51.00 - - 11.00 - - 5.0 -
Bowman (QLD) 34.0 1.10 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Braddon (TAS) 34.0 1.50 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Bradfield (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Brand (WA) 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Brisbane (QLD) 26.0 1.62 34.00 - - 2.20 - - - -
Bruce (VIC) 34.0 4.00 51.00 - - 1.22 - - - -
Burt (WA) 34.0 2.50 - - - 1.50 - - - -
Calare (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - 16.0 -
Calwell (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Canberra (ACT) 34.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Canning (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Capricornia (QLD) 34.0 3.50 51.00 - - 1.28 - - - -
Casey (VIC) 34.0 1.05 51.00 - - 8.50 - - - -
Chifley (NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Chisholm (VIC) 34.0 4.20 51.00 - - 1.20 - - - -
Cook (NSW) 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Corangamite (VIC) 34.0 1.50 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Corio (VIC) 16.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.02 - - - -
Cowan (WA) 34.0 3.00 51.00 - - 1.35 - - - -
Cowper (NSW) - 1.06 34.00 6.00 - 31.00 - - - -
Cunningham (NSW) 21.0 26.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Curtin (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Dawson (QLD) 34.0 1.10 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Deakin (VIC) 34.0 1.50 34.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Denison (TAS) 34.0 21.00 51.00 1.01 - 12.00 - - - -
Dickson (QLD) 34.0 1.10 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Dobell (NSW) 34.0 3.00 51.00 - - 1.35 - - - -
Dunkley (VIC) 41.0 1.58 51.00 - - 2.30 - - - -
Durack (WA) 16.0 - 51.00 - - 34.00 1.08 7.0 - -
Eden Monaro (NSW) 51.0 1.87 51.00 - - 1.87 - - - -
Fadden (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Fairfax (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Farrer (NSW) 21.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Fenner (ACT) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Fisher (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Flinders (VIC) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Flynn (QLD) 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 4.20 - - - -
Forde (QLD) 34.0 1.50 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Forrest (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Fowler (NSW) 34.0 21.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Franklin (TAS) 34.0 7.00 21.00 - - 1.07 - - - -
Fremantle (WA) 34.0 34.00 7.00 - - 1.03 - - - -
Gelibrand (VIC) 34.0 26.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Gilmore (NSW) 34.0 1.45 51.00 - - 2.50 - - - -
Gippsland (VIC) 16.0 1.01 51.00 - - 34.00 - - - -
Goldstein (VIC) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Gorton (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Grayndler (NSW) 34.0 26.00 4.33 - - 1.15 - - - -
Greenway (NSW) 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.12 - - - -
Grey (SA) 34.0 1.27 51.00 - - 16.00 - - 3.5 -
Griffith (QLD) 34.0 7.50 34.00 - - 1.07 - - - -
Groom (QLD) 16.0 1.01 51.00 - - 26.00 - - 21.0 -
Hasluck (WA) 34.0 2.00 51.00 - - 1.70 - - - -
Herbert (QLD) 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 3.75 - - - 51.0
Higgins (VIC) 34.0 1.10 6.00 - - 21.00 - - 51.0 -
Hindmarsh (SA) 34.0 1.87 51.00 - - 1.87 - - 11.0 -
Hinkler (QLD) 15.0 1.08 51.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Holt (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Hotham (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Hughes (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Hume (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 15.00 - - - -
Hunter(NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Indi (VIC) 34.0 - 51.00 1.15 - 34.00 11.00 6.0 - -
Isaacs (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Jagajaga (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Kennedy (QLD) 34.0 12.00 51.00 - 1.01 26.00 - - - -
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Kingston (SA) 34.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.15 - - 5.0 -
Kooyong (VIC) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
La Trobe (Vic) 34.0 1.60 51.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Lalor (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Leichhardt (QLD) 21.0 1.25 51.00 - - 3.70 - - - -
Lilley (QLD) 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Lindsay (NSW) 34.0 1.35 51.00 - - 2.60 - - 21.0 -
Longman (QLD) 34.0 1.20 51.00 - - 4.00 - - - -
Lyne (NSW) 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - - -
Lyons (TAS) 34.0 1.55 51.00 - - 2.35 - - - -
Macarthur (NSW) 34.0 2.00 51.00 - - 1.75 - - 16.0 -
Mackellar (NSW) - 1.01 51.00 12.00 - 21.00 - - - -
Macquarie (NSW) 26.0 1.44 26.00 - - 2.55 - - - -
Makin (SA) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.08 - - 7.0 -
Mallee (VIC) 16.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Maranoa (QLD) 12.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Maribyrnong (VIC) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Mayo (SA) 34.0 1.27 31.00 - - 51.00 - - 3.0 -
McEwen (VIC) 34.0 5.50 51.00 - - 1.12 - - - -
McMahon (NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
McMillan (VIC) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
McPherson (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Melbourne (VIC) 26.0 34.00 1.05 - - 9.00 - - - -
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 34.0 8.00 10.00 - - 1.08 - - - -
Menzies (VIC) 34.0 1.01 51.00 11.00 - 26.00 - - - -
Mitchell (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Moncrieff (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Moore (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Moreton (QLD) 34.0 12.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - 16.0 -
Murray (VIC) 34.0 - 51.00 - - 26.00 1.50 2.5 - -
New England (NSW) 34.0 1.30 51.00 3.30 - 34.00 - - - -
Newcastle (NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.04 - - - -
North Sydney (NSW) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
O'Connor (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Oxley (QLD) 34.0 8.50 51.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Page (NSW) 34.0 1.87 51.00 - - 1.87 - - - -
Parkes (NSW) 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - - -
Parramatta (NSW) 34.0 6.00 51.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Paterson (NSW) 17.0 3.75 26.00 - - 1.25 - - - -
Pearce (WA) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 12.00 - - - -
Perth (WA) 51.0 8.00 26.00 - - 1.03 - - - -
Petrie (QLD) 26.0 3.75 41.00 - - 1.25 - - - -
Port Adelaide (SA) 34.0 26.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - 12.0 -
Rankin (QLD) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Reid (NSW) 34.0 1.55 51.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Richmond (NSW) 34.0 4.50 7.50 - - 1.30 - - - -
Riverina (NSW) 21.0 1.01 51.00 - - 21.00 - - - -
Robertson (NSW) 34.0 1.57 34.00 - - 2.25 - - - -
Ryan (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -
Scullin (VIC) 34.0 26.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Shortland (NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Solomon (NT) 26.0 2.40 41.00 51.00 - 1.55 - - - -
Stirling (WA) 34.0 1.35 51.00 - - 3.00 - - - -
Sturt (SA) - 1.15 51.00 - - 11.00 - - 5.0 -
Swan (WA) 34.0 1.87 51.00 - - 1.87 - - - -
Sydney (NSW) 26.0 21.00 8.00 - - 1.05 - - - -
Tangney (WA) - 1.01 51.00 16.00 - 34.00 - - - -
Wakefield (SA) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.10 - - 6.0 -
Wannon (VIC) 16.0 1.01 51.00 - - 34.00 - - - -
Warringah (NSW) 34.0 1.06 51.00 7.50 - 21.00 - - 11.0 -
Watson (NSW) 34.0 16.00 51.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Wentworth (NSW) 34.0 1.01 21.00 - - 34.00 - - - -
Werriwa (NSW) 26.0 6.00 51.00 - - 1.10 - - - -
Whitlam (NSW) 31.0 34.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - - -
Wide Bay (QLD) 16.0 1.10 34.00 - - 6.00 - - - -
Wills (VIC) 51.0 34.00 4.00 - - 1.20 - - - -
Wright (QLD) 34.0 1.01 51.00 - - 16.00 - - - -

Complete list of Seat Probabilities (in per cent)
Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Batman (VIC) 2.50 2.50 21.22 - - 73.79 - Labor
Fremantle (WA) 2.51 2.51 12.18 - - 82.80 - Labor
Wills (VIC) 1.73 2.60 22.08 - - 73.59 - Labor
Melbourne (VIC) 3.40 2.60 84.18 - - 9.82 - Green
Whitlam (NSW) 2.89 2.64 5.61 - - 88.86 - Labor
Grayndler (NSW) 2.52 3.29 19.77 - - 74.42 - Labor
Port Adelaide (SA) 2.53 3.31 1.69 - - 85.29 7.18 Labor
Gelibrand (VIC) 2.62 3.43 5.58 - - 88.36 - Labor
Scullin (VIC) 2.62 3.43 5.58 - - 88.36 - Labor
Cunningham (NSW) 4.35 3.51 1.79 - - 90.36 - Labor
Denison (TAS) 2.51 4.07 1.68 84.62 - 7.12 - Independent
Sydney (NSW) 3.31 4.09 10.74 - - 81.86 - Labor
Fowler (NSW) 2.71 4.38 1.80 - - 91.11 - Labor
Wakefield (SA) 2.48 5.26 1.65 - - 76.57 14.04 Labor
Makin (SA) 2.49 5.30 1.66 - - 78.45 12.10 Labor
Corio (VIC) 5.56 5.56 1.74 - - 87.15 - Labor
Gorton (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Shortland (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Chifley (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Isaacs (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Rankin (QLD) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Hotham (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Holt (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Watson (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Maribyrnong (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Lalor (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Calwell (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Jagajaga (VIC) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
McMahon (NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Fenner (ACT) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Hunter(NSW) 2.67 5.67 1.78 - - 89.88 - Labor
Newcastle (NSW) 2.74 5.82 1.83 - - 89.61 - Labor
Kingston (SA) 2.45 6.93 1.63 - - 72.35 16.64 Labor
Moreton (QLD) 2.48 7.03 1.65 - - 83.56 5.27 Labor
Kennedy (QLD) 2.53 7.18 1.69 - 85.29 3.31 - KAP (Bob Katter)
Blaxland (NSW) 3.40 7.36 1.73 - - 87.50 - Labor
Ballarat (VIC) 2.62 7.42 1.75 - - 88.21 - Labor
Canberra (ACT) 2.62 7.42 1.75 - - 88.21 - Labor
Barton (NSW) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 - Labor
Brand (WA) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Blair (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Lilley (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Oxley (QLD) 2.63 10.51 1.75 - - 85.11 - Labor
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 2.49 10.59 8.47 - - 78.45 - Labor
Perth (WA) 1.70 10.83 3.33 - - 84.14 - Labor
Griffith (QLD) 2.61 11.83 2.61 - - 82.95 - Labor
Franklin (TAS) 2.55 12.37 4.12 - - 80.95 - Labor
Werriwa (NSW) 3.39 14.70 1.73 - - 80.18 - Labor
Parramatta (NSW) 2.61 14.82 1.74 - - 80.82 - Labor
Bendigo (VIC) 2.61 14.82 1.74 - - 80.82 - Labor
McEwen (VIC) 2.62 16.18 1.74 - - 79.46 - Labor
Greenway (NSW) 3.29 17.10 3.29 - - 76.33 - Labor
Richmond (NSW) 2.55 19.25 11.55 - - 66.65 - Labor
Chisholm (VIC) 2.62 21.25 1.75 - - 74.38 - Labor
Indi (VIC) 2.44 21.37 1.63 72.13 - 2.44 - Independent
Adelaide (SA) 2.53 21.51 1.69 - - 64.71 9.56 Labor
Bruce (VIC) 2.63 22.35 1.75 - - 73.27 - Labor
Paterson (NSW) 5.05 22.91 3.30 - - 68.73 - Labor
Petrie (QLD) 3.41 23.61 2.16 - - 70.83 - Labor
Capricornia (QLD) 2.64 25.60 1.76 - - 70.01 - Labor
Cowan (WA) 2.62 29.68 1.75 - - 65.96 - Labor
Dobell (NSW) 2.62 29.68 1.75 - - 65.96 - Labor
Solomon (NT) 3.36 36.41 2.13 1.71 - 56.38 - Labor
Burt (WA) 2.68 36.49 - - - 60.82 - Labor
Macarthur (NSW) 2.49 42.27 1.66 - - 48.31 5.28 Labor
Hasluck (WA) 2.59 43.97 1.72 - - 51.72 - Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) 2.43 44.22 1.62 - - 44.22 7.52 Coalition, Labor
Swan (WA) 2.63 47.81 1.75 - - 47.81 - Coalition, Labor
Page (NSW) 2.63 47.81 1.75 - - 47.81 - Coalition, Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 48.23 1.77 - - 48.23 - Coalition, Labor
Brisbane (QLD) 3.37 54.16 2.58 - - 39.88 - Coalition
Robertson (NSW) 2.58 55.86 2.58 - - 38.98 - Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 2.63 55.88 1.75 - - 39.74 - Coalition
Reid (NSW) 2.58 56.66 1.72 - - 39.03 - Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 2.19 56.93 1.76 - - 39.11 - Coalition
Lyons (TAS) 2.63 57.62 1.75 - - 38.00 - Coalition
Deakin (VIC) 2.61 59.23 2.61 - - 35.54 - Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 3.31 59.68 3.31 - - 33.70 - Coalition
Forde (QLD) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 2.64 59.75 1.76 - - 35.85 - Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 2.54 59.86 1.69 - - 35.92 - Coalition
Gilmore (NSW) 2.58 60.57 1.72 - - 35.13 - Coalition
Lindsay (NSW) 2.41 60.62 1.60 - - 31.47 3.90 Coalition
Mayo (SA) 2.45 65.51 2.68 - - 1.63 27.73 Coalition
Stirling (WA) 2.62 65.96 1.75 - - 29.68 - Coalition
Banks (NSW) 2.62 65.96 1.75 - - 29.68 - Coalition
Grey (SA) 2.48 66.47 1.66 - - 5.28 24.12 Coalition
New England (NSW) 2.56 66.85 1.70 26.33 - 2.56 - Coalition
Leichhardt (QLD) 4.19 70.33 1.72 - - 23.76 - Coalition
Herbert (QLD) 4.19 71.31 1.68 - - 22.82 - Coalition
Bass (TAS) 2.64 71.70 1.76 - - 23.90 - Coalition
Boothby (SA) 2.43 71.89 1.62 - - 7.52 16.54 Coalition
Longman (QLD) 2.60 73.59 1.73 - - 22.08 - Coalition
Sturt (SA) - 73.69 1.66 - - 7.70 16.95 Coalition
Flynn (QLD) 2.62 74.38 1.75 - - 21.25 - Coalition
Warringah (NSW) 2.33 74.62 1.55 10.55 - 3.77 7.19 Coalition
Higgins (VIC) 2.51 77.54 14.22 - - 4.06 1.67 Coalition
Wide Bay (QLD) 5.35 77.86 2.52 - - 14.27 - Coalition
Hinkler (QLD) 5.66 78.54 1.66 - - 14.14 - Coalition
Cowper (NSW) - 80.51 2.51 14.22 - 2.75 - Coalition
Barker (SA) 2.49 80.52 1.66 - - 3.25 12.08 Coalition
Dickson (QLD) 2.61 80.82 1.74 - - 14.82 - Coalition
Bowman (QLD) 2.61 80.82 1.74 - - 14.82 - Coalition
Dawson (QLD) 2.61 80.82 1.74 - - 14.82 - Coalition
Aston (VIC) 2.52 81.53 1.68 - - 14.27 - Coalition
Cook (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - Coalition
Menzies (VIC) 2.52 84.73 1.68 7.78 - 3.29 - Coalition
Casey (VIC) 2.63 85.11 1.75 - - 10.51 - Coalition
Groom (QLD) 5.40 85.48 1.69 - - 3.32 4.11 Coalition
Parkes (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 - Coalition
Lyne (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 - Coalition
Calare (NSW) 2.56 86.15 1.71 - - 4.14 5.44 Coalition
Mackellar (NSW) - 86.80 1.72 7.31 - 4.17 - Coalition
Maranoa (QLD) 7.31 86.80 1.72 - - 4.17 - Coalition
Berowra (NSW) 3.40 87.50 1.73 - - 7.36 - Coalition
Pearce (WA) 2.62 88.21 1.75 - - 7.42 - Coalition
Fisher (QLD) 2.62 88.21 1.75 - - 7.42 - Coalition
Bennelong (NSW) 2.62 88.21 1.75 - - 7.42 - Coalition
Bradfield (NSW) 2.62 88.21 1.75 - - 7.42 - Coalition
Mallee (VIC) 5.58 88.42 1.75 - - 4.25 - Coalition
Hume (NSW) 2.66 89.54 1.77 - - 6.03 - Coalition
Riverina (NSW) 4.31 89.61 1.77 - - 4.31 - Coalition
Farrer (NSW) 4.31 89.61 1.77 - - 4.31 - Coalition
Moncrieff (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
McMillan (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
McPherson (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Wright (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Mitchell (NSW) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Ryan (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Fadden (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
North Sydney (NSW) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Hughes (NSW) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Fairfax (QLD) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Curtin (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Tangney (WA) - 89.88 1.78 5.67 - 2.67 - Coalition
Forrest (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Moore (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Canning (WA) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Gippsland (VIC) 5.67 89.88 1.78 - - 2.67 - Coalition
Kooyong (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Flinders (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Goldstein (VIC) 2.67 89.88 1.78 - - 5.67 - Coalition
Wannon (VIC) 5.67 89.88 1.78 - - 2.67 - Coalition
Wentworth (NSW) 2.68 90.29 4.34 - - 2.68 - Coalition
Durack (WA) 5.30 90.55 1.66 - - 2.49 - Coalition
O'Connor (WA) 2.71 91.11 1.80 - - 4.38 - Coalition
Murray (VIC) 2.55 92.42 1.70 - - 3.33 - Coalition

Seats where the 2016 favorite suggests it might change at the 2016 election.
TPP 2013 TCP 2013 2013 Outcome 2016 Favourite
Seat
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% - Coalition Labor
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.8% - Coalition Labor
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5% - Coalition Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) LIB 2.9% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Fairfax (QLD) - PUP 0.03% v LNP Palmer United Coalition
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% - Coalition Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) LIB 1.9% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Lingiari (NT) ALP 0.9% - Labor -
Macarthur (NSW) LIB 3.3% - Coalition Labor
Page (NSW) NAT 3.1% - Coalition Coalition, Labor
Petrie (QLD) LNP 0.5% - Coalition Labor
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4% - Coalition Labor
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% - Coalition Coalition, Labor

Big movers in "Closeness" ranking
Ranked by Closeness Win Probability (%)
Mon 13 June Sun 12 June Change in Rank Any Other Coalition Green Ind. Katter Labor NXT
Macquarie (NSW) 21 16 5 3.31 59.68 3.31 0.0 0.0 33.70 0.00
Mayo (SA) 27 32 -5 2.45 65.51 2.68 0.0 0.0 1.63 27.73
Leichhardt (QLD) 33 44 -11 4.19 70.33 1.72 0.0 0.0 23.76 0.00
Batman (VIC) 43 15 28 2.50 2.50 21.22 0.0 0.0 73.79 0.00
Grayndler (NSW) 46 29 17 2.52 3.29 19.77 0.0 0.0 74.42 0.00
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 66 53 13 2.49 10.59 8.47 0.0 0.0 78.45 0.00
Fremantle (WA) 69 51 18 2.51 2.51 12.18 0.0 0.0 82.80 0.00
Sydney (NSW) 70 56 14 3.31 4.09 10.74 0.0 0.0 81.86 0.00

All Seats ranked by closeness
Ranked by Closeness Win Probability (%)
Mon 13 June Sun 12 June Change in Rank Any Other Coalition Green Ind. Katter Labor NXT
Page (NSW) 1 1 0 2.63 47.81 1.75 0.00 0.00 47.81 0.00
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1 1 0 1.77 48.23 1.77 0.00 0.00 48.23 0.00
Swan (WA) 1 1 0 2.63 47.81 1.75 0.00 0.00 47.81 0.00
Hindmarsh (SA) 1 1 0 2.43 44.22 1.62 0.00 0.00 44.22 7.52
Macarthur (NSW) 5 5 0 2.49 42.27 1.66 0.00 0.00 48.31 5.28
Hasluck (WA) 6 6 0 2.59 43.97 1.72 0.00 0.00 51.72 0.00
Brisbane (QLD) 7 7 0 3.37 54.16 2.58 0.00 0.00 39.88 0.00
La Trobe (Vic) 8 8 0 2.63 55.88 1.75 0.00 0.00 39.74 0.00
Robertson (NSW) 9 9 0 2.58 55.86 2.58 0.00 0.00 38.98 0.00
Reid (NSW) 10 10 0 2.58 56.66 1.72 0.00 0.00 39.03 0.00
Dunkley (VIC) 11 11 0 2.19 56.93 1.76 0.00 0.00 39.11 0.00
Lyons (TAS) 12 12 0 2.63 57.62 1.75 0.00 0.00 38.00 0.00
Solomon (NT) 13 13 0 3.36 36.41 2.13 1.71 0.00 56.38 0.00
Deakin (VIC) 14 17 -3 2.61 59.23 2.61 0.00 0.00 35.54 0.00
Forde (QLD) 15 18 -3 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00
Braddon (TAS) 15 18 -3 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00
Corangamite (VIC) 15 18 -3 2.64 59.75 1.76 0.00 0.00 35.85 0.00
Bonner (QLD) 18 14 4 2.54 59.86 1.69 0.00 0.00 35.92 0.00
Burt (WA) 19 21 -2 2.68 36.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.82 0.00
Gilmore (NSW) 20 22 -2 2.58 60.57 1.72 0.00 0.00 35.13 0.00
Macquarie (NSW) 21 16 5 3.31 59.68 3.31 0.00 0.00 33.70 0.00
Lindsay (NSW) 22 23 -1 2.41 60.62 1.60 0.00 0.00 31.47 3.90
Cowan (WA) 23 24 -1 2.62 29.68 1.75 0.00 0.00 65.96 0.00
Stirling (WA) 23 24 -1 2.62 65.96 1.75 0.00 0.00 29.68 0.00
Dobell (NSW) 23 24 -1 2.62 29.68 1.75 0.00 0.00 65.96 0.00
Banks (NSW) 23 24 -1 2.62 65.96 1.75 0.00 0.00 29.68 0.00
Mayo (SA) 27 32 -5 2.45 65.51 2.68 0.00 0.00 1.63 27.73
New England (NSW) 28 28 0 2.56 66.85 1.70 26.33 0.00 2.56 0.00
Grey (SA) 29 30 -1 2.48 66.47 1.66 0.00 0.00 5.28 24.12
Adelaide (SA) 30 31 -1 2.53 21.51 1.69 0.00 0.00 64.71 9.56
Capricornia (QLD) 31 33 -2 2.64 25.60 1.76 0.00 0.00 70.01 0.00
Paterson (NSW) 32 34 -2 5.05 22.91 3.30 0.00 0.00 68.73 0.00
Leichhardt (QLD) 33 44 -11 4.19 70.33 1.72 0.00 0.00 23.76 0.00
Petrie (QLD) 34 35 -1 3.41 23.61 2.16 0.00 0.00 70.83 0.00
Richmond (NSW) 35 36 -1 2.55 19.25 11.55 0.00 0.00 66.65 0.00
Bass (TAS) 36 37 -1 2.64 71.70 1.76 0.00 0.00 23.90 0.00
Herbert (QLD) 37 38 -1 4.19 71.31 1.68 0.00 0.00 22.82 0.00
Lingiari (NT) 38 39 -1 5.06 21.79 1.71 0.00 0.00 71.44 0.00
Indi (VIC) 39 40 -1 2.44 21.37 1.63 72.13 0.00 2.44 0.00
Bruce (VIC) 40 41 -1 2.63 22.35 1.75 0.00 0.00 73.27 0.00
Wills (VIC) 41 42 -1 1.73 2.60 22.08 0.00 0.00 73.59 0.00
Longman (QLD) 41 42 -1 2.60 73.59 1.73 0.00 0.00 22.08 0.00
Batman (VIC) 43 15 28 2.50 2.50 21.22 0.00 0.00 73.79 0.00
Chisholm (VIC) 44 44 0 2.62 21.25 1.75 0.00 0.00 74.38 0.00
Flynn (QLD) 44 44 0 2.62 74.38 1.75 0.00 0.00 21.25 0.00
Grayndler (NSW) 46 29 17 2.52 3.29 19.77 0.00 0.00 74.42 0.00
Boothby (SA) 47 47 0 2.43 71.89 1.62 0.00 0.00 7.52 16.54
Kingston (SA) 48 48 0 2.45 6.93 1.63 0.00 0.00 72.35 16.64
Sturt (SA) 49 49 0 0.00 73.69 1.66 0.00 0.00 7.70 16.95
Greenway (NSW) 50 50 0 3.29 17.10 3.29 0.00 0.00 76.33 0.00
Wakefield (SA) 51 52 -1 2.48 5.26 1.65 0.00 0.00 76.57 14.04
McEwen (VIC) 52 54 -2 2.62 16.18 1.74 0.00 0.00 79.46 0.00
Higgins (VIC) 53 55 -2 2.51 77.54 14.22 0.00 0.00 4.06 1.67
Wide Bay (QLD) 54 57 -3 5.35 77.86 2.52 0.00 0.00 14.27 0.00
Warringah (NSW) 55 58 -3 2.33 74.62 1.55 10.55 0.00 3.77 7.19
Hinkler (QLD) 56 59 -3 5.66 78.54 1.66 0.00 0.00 14.14 0.00
Werriwa (NSW) 57 60 -3 3.39 14.70 1.73 0.00 0.00 80.18 0.00
Bowman (QLD) 58 61 -3 2.61 80.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 14.82 0.00
Dawson (QLD) 58 61 -3 2.61 80.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 14.82 0.00
Dickson (QLD) 58 61 -3 2.61 80.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 14.82 0.00
Parramatta (NSW) 58 61 -3 2.61 14.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 80.82 0.00
Bendigo (VIC) 58 61 -3 2.61 14.82 1.74 0.00 0.00 80.82 0.00
Cowper (NSW) 63 66 -3 0.00 80.51 2.51 14.22 0.00 2.75 0.00
Makin (SA) 64 67 -3 2.49 5.30 1.66 0.00 0.00 78.45 12.10
Aston (VIC) 65 68 -3 2.52 81.53 1.68 0.00 0.00 14.27 0.00
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 66 53 13 2.49 10.59 8.47 0.00 0.00 78.45 0.00
Barker (SA) 67 69 -2 2.49 80.52 1.66 0.00 0.00 3.25 12.08
Franklin (TAS) 68 70 -2 2.55 12.37 4.12 0.00 0.00 80.95 0.00
Fremantle (WA) 69 51 18 2.51 2.51 12.18 0.00 0.00 82.80 0.00
Griffith (QLD) 70 71 -1 2.61 11.83 2.61 0.00 0.00 82.95 0.00
Sydney (NSW) 70 56 14 3.31 4.09 10.74 0.00 0.00 81.86 0.00
Barton (NSW) 72 72 0 3.35 10.26 3.35 0.00 0.00 83.04 0.00
Perth (WA) 73 73 0 1.70 10.83 3.33 0.00 0.00 84.14 0.00
Melbourne (VIC) 74 74 0 3.40 2.60 84.18 0.00 0.00 9.82 0.00
Brand (WA) 75 75 0 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Blair (QLD) 75 75 0 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Oxley (QLD) 75 75 0 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Casey (VIC) 75 75 0 2.63 85.11 1.75 0.00 0.00 10.51 0.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 75 75 0 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Lilley (QLD) 75 75 0 2.63 10.51 1.75 0.00 0.00 85.11 0.00
Moreton (QLD) 81 81 0 2.48 7.03 1.65 0.00 0.00 83.56 5.27
Menzies (VIC) 82 82 0 2.52 84.73 1.68 7.78 0.00 3.29 0.00
Denison (TAS) 83 83 0 2.51 4.07 1.68 84.62 0.00 7.12 0.00
Port Adelaide (SA) 84 84 0 2.53 3.31 1.69 0.00 0.00 85.29 7.18
Kennedy (QLD) 84 84 0 2.53 7.18 1.69 0.00 85.29 3.31 0.00
Cook (NSW) 86 86 0 5.31 84.08 5.31 0.00 0.00 5.31 0.00
Parkes (NSW) 87 87 0 7.24 86.07 3.34 0.00 0.00 3.34 0.00
Lyne (NSW) 87 87 0 7.24 86.07 3.34 0.00 0.00 3.34 0.00
Mackellar (NSW) 89 89 0 0.00 86.80 1.72 7.31 0.00 4.17 0.00
Maranoa (QLD) 89 89 0 7.31 86.80 1.72 0.00 0.00 4.17 0.00
Groom (QLD) 91 91 0 5.40 85.48 1.69 0.00 0.00 3.32 4.11
Berowra (NSW) 92 92 0 3.40 87.50 1.73 0.00 0.00 7.36 0.00
Blaxland (NSW) 92 92 0 3.40 7.36 1.73 0.00 0.00 87.50 0.00
Calare (NSW) 94 94 0 2.56 86.15 1.71 0.00 0.00 4.14 5.44
Bennelong (NSW) 95 95 0 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00
Bradfield (NSW) 95 95 0 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00
Pearce (WA) 95 95 0 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00
Fisher (QLD) 95 95 0 2.62 88.21 1.75 0.00 0.00 7.42 0.00
Canberra (ACT) 95 95 0 2.62 7.42 1.75 0.00 0.00 88.21 0.00
Ballarat (VIC) 95 95 0 2.62 7.42 1.75 0.00 0.00 88.21 0.00
Corio (VIC) 101 101 0 5.56 5.56 1.74 0.00 0.00 87.15 0.00
Gellibrand (VIC) 102 102 0 2.62 3.43 5.58 0.00 0.00 88.36 0.00
Scullin (VIC) 102 102 0 2.62 3.43 5.58 0.00 0.00 88.36 0.00
Mallee (VIC) 104 104 0 5.58 88.42 1.75 0.00 0.00 4.25 0.00
Whitlam (NSW) 105 105 0 2.89 2.64 5.61 0.00 0.00 88.86 0.00
Hume (NSW) 106 106 0 2.66 89.54 1.77 0.00 0.00 6.03 0.00
Newcastle (NSW) 107 107 0 2.74 5.82 1.83 0.00 0.00 89.61 0.00
Wannon (VIC) 108 108 0 5.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 2.67 0.00
Rankin (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Watson (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Shortland (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Tangney (WA) 108 108 0 0.00 89.88 1.78 5.67 0.00 2.67 0.00
Ryan (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
North Sydney (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Hughes (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Moore (WA) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Calwell (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Canning (WA) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Chifley (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Curtin (WA) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Fadden (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Fairfax (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Fenner (ACT) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Flinders (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Forrest (WA) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Gippsland (VIC) 108 108 0 5.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 2.67 0.00
Gorton (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Holt (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Goldstein (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
McMahon (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Moncrieff (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Mitchell (NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
McPherson (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
McMillan (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Hotham (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Maribyrnong (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Wright (QLD) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Kooyong (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 89.88 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.67 0.00
Jagajaga (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Isaacs (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Hunter(NSW) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Lalor (VIC) 108 108 0 2.67 5.67 1.78 0.00 0.00 89.88 0.00
Durack (WA) 143 143 0 5.30 90.55 1.66 0.00 0.00 2.49 0.00
Farrer (NSW) 144 144 0 4.31 89.61 1.77 0.00 0.00 4.31 0.00
Riverina (NSW) 144 144 0 4.31 89.61 1.77 0.00 0.00 4.31 0.00
Wentworth (NSW) 146 146 0 2.68 90.29 4.34 0.00 0.00 2.68 0.00
Cunningham (NSW) 147 147 0 4.35 3.51 1.79 0.00 0.00 90.36 0.00
Fowler (NSW) 148 148 0 2.71 4.38 1.80 0.00 0.00 91.11 0.00
O'Connor (WA) 148 148 0 2.71 91.11 1.80 0.00 0.00 4.38 0.00
Murray (VIC) 150 150 0 2.55 92.42 1.70 0.00 0.00 3.33 0.00

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