Monday, June 6, 2016

Newspoll 50-50

Today's new Newspoll poll, published in the Murdoch press, has the Coalition and Labor on 50-50 (this is a one point improvement for the Coalition and a one point decline for Labor on the previous Newspoll). Because the new Newspoll has leaned to Labor, today's result shifts the aggregation towards the Coalition. Using the model that anchors house effects with the outcome of the previous election, the poll aggregation is 50.7 for the Coalition to 49.3 per cent for Labor.

The big feature of this poll is the jump in primary votes for other. While not identified in Newspoll, this is likely to be a jump in votes for the Nick Xenophon Team. It appears to be a consistent feature across the polls.

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