Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Betting market update

Let's begin with the odds and probabilities for the overall winner, before moving to the Sportsbet market for individual seats (both tables and charts).

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-06-29 Betfair 1.11 8.03 87.86
2016-06-29 CrownBet 1.12 6.50 85.30
2016-06-29 Ladbrokes 1.10 6.50 85.53
2016-06-29 Luxbet 1.10 6.75 85.99
2016-06-29 Sportsbet 1.10 7.00 86.42
2016-06-29 William Hill 1.10 7.00 86.42

We 22-Jun Th 23-Jun Fr 24-Jun Sa 25-Jun Su 26-Jun Mo 27-Jun Tu 28-Jun We 29-Jun
Betfair 84.61 81.70 84.99 84.88 84.61 85.91 85.79 87.86
CrownBet 82.71 82.71 82.71 82.71 82.71 82.71 85.30 85.30
Ladbrokes 84.51 84.27 84.27 84.39 84.39 82.96 85.53 85.53
Luxbet 83.45 83.45 83.09 83.09 83.09 83.09 83.70 85.99
Sportsbet 84.26 82.71 82.71 82.71 82.71 82.71 86.42 86.42
William Hill 84.15 82.71 84.27 84.27 84.27 82.83 84.15 86.42
Average 83.95 82.92 83.67 83.67 83.63 83.37 85.15 86.25





For the individual seats I use the most recent odds I have captured for each seat. We start with a look at missing odds.

Missing Odds
2016-05-19 O'Connor (WA)
2016-05-20 O'Connor (WA)
2016-06-03 Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-04 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-05 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-06 Indi (VIC), Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-07 Wentworth (NSW)
2016-06-09 Lingiari (NT), Solomon (NT)
2016-06-10 Brisbane (QLD), Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-11 Lingiari (NT), Murray (VIC)
2016-06-12 Lingiari (NT), Murray (VIC)
2016-06-13 Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-14 Lingiari (NT)
2016-06-16 Grayndler (NSW)
2016-06-17 Mackellar (NSW)
2016-06-20 Cook (NSW)
2016-06-21 Cook (NSW)
2016-06-25 Ballarat (VIC), Bendigo (VIC), Calwell (VIC), Canning (WA), Durack (WA), Forrest (WA), Pearce (WA)
2016-06-26 Calwell (VIC), Durack (WA)
2016-06-27 Calwell (VIC), Durack (WA)

Latest odds

2016-06-29
Adelaide (SA) Animal Justice Party 101.00FamilyFirst101.00
Green 51.00Labor1.30
Lib Dem 101.00Liberal3.30
Nick Xenophon Team $11.00
Aston (VIC) Animal Justice Party 101.00Coalition1.05
Family First 101.00Green51.00
Independent (Daniel Huppert) 51.00Labor6.00
Lib Dem $101.00
Ballarat (VIC) Australian Christians 151.00FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(BrenEckel)151.00
Labor 1.01Liberal12.00
National 26.00RiseUpAustralia151.00
Banks (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.20FamilyFirst101.00
Green 51.00Independent(BobSpanswick)151.00
Labor $4.20
Barker (SA) Coalition 1.35FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor26.00
Nick Xenophon Team $3.00
Barton (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition8.50
Green 51.00Independent(RasmusTorkel)151.00
Labor 1.05OnlineDirectDemocracy151.00
Bass (TAS) Australian Recreational Fishers Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 1.35Green51.00
Labor 3.00RenewableEnergyParty51.00
Batman (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianCyclists51.00
Australian Progressives (Russell Hayward) 51.00AustralianSexParty51.00
Coalition 34.00Green1.95
Independent (Franco Guardiani) 51.00Independent(PhilipSutton)51.00
Labor 1.80MarriageEquality(ElizabethSyber)51.00
Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Bendigo (VIC) Animal Justice Party 151.00AnyOther34.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Anita Erika Donlon) 101.00Labor1.10
Liberal 6.00National16.00
Rise Up Australia $151.00
Bennelong (NSW) Arts Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Martin Mulcare) 51.00Labor16.00
Pirate Party $151.00
Berowra (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Independent(MickGallagher)101.00
Labor 16.00ScienceParty151.00
Blair (QLD) Coalition 6.00FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(JonathanEmms)151.00
Independent (Patricia Petersen) 151.00Independent(SandyTurner)151.00
Labor 1.08PaulineHanson51.00
Blaxland (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Socialist Equality $151.00
Bonner (QLD) Coalition 1.12FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(JarrodWirth)151.00
Labor 4.00LibDem51.00
Boothby (SA) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.25
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Jamie Armfield) 51.00Independent(RobertdeJonge)51.00
Labor 26.00NickXenophonTeam3.75
Bowman (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00Coalition1.10
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Labor $6.00
Braddon (TAS) Australian Recreational Fishers Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 1.45Green51.00
Labor 2.35LibDem51.00
Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Bradfield (NSW) Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Christine Berman) 151.00Labor16.00
Brand (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition8.50
Green 51.00Labor1.05
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Brisbane (QLD) Coalition 1.40FamilyFirst151.00
Green 34.00Labor2.75
Lib Dem 51.00VeteransParty151.00
Bruce (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition6.00
Drug Law Reform 51.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor1.10
Renewable Energy Party $51.00
Burt (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition2.70
Green 51.00Labor1.44
Shooters $51.00
Calare (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 101.00Independent(AnthonyCraig)151.00
Labor 21.00LibDem51.00
Nick Xenophon Team $34.00
Calwell (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Michael Amon Lakkis) 51.00Labor1.01
Canberra (ACT) Bullet Train for Australia 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 21.00Labor1.00
Canning (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Green51.00
Labor 16.00Liberal1.01
National $26.00
Capricornia (QLD) Coalition 2.05FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(KenMurray)151.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 34.00Labor1.70
Casey (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.05
Green 51.00Independent(PeterCharleton)51.00
Labor 8.50RiseUpAustralia51.00
Chifley (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(AmmarKhan)151.00
Labor $1.00
Chisholm (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition3.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Labor 1.36RiseUpAustralia51.00
Cook (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 16.00Independent(JohnBrett)151.00
Labor $34.00
Corangamite (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.05
Derryn Hinch 51.00DrugLawReform51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Michael Lawrence) 51.00Labor8.50
Lib Dem 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Corio (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00BulletTrainForAustralia(JeffMoran)51.00
Coalition 16.00Green51.00
Labor 1.02RiseUpAustralia51.00
Socialist Alliance $51.00
Cowan (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.85
Green 51.00Labor1.85
Lib Dem 51.00MatureAustralia51.00
Shooters $51.00
Cowper (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00CitizensElectoralCouncil151.00
Coalition 1.40Green51.00
Independent (John Arkan) 151.00Independent(RobOakeshott)2.75
Labor $34.00
Cunningham (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition26.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Non Custodial Parents Party 151.00ScienceParty151.00
Curtin (WA) Australian Liberty Alliance 51.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Independent(SandraBoulter)51.00
Labor $16.00
Dawson (QLD) Coalition 1.17FamilyFirst151.00
Glenn Lazarus Team 101.00Green51.00
Independent (Stephen Large) 151.00KAP(BobKatter)41.00
Labor $4.00
Deakin (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianChristians51.00
Coalition 1.20FamilyFirst51.00
Green 34.00Labor4.20
Denison (TAS) Christian Democratic Party 51.00Coalition21.00
Democratic Labour Party 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Andrew Wilkie) 1.00Labor16.00
Dickson (QLD) Coalition 1.10FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Independent(ThorProhaska)81.00
Labor 6.00LibDem51.00
Dobell (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition3.30
Green 51.00Independent(GregoryStephenson)151.00
Independent (Paul Baker) 151.00Labor1.30
Pauline Hanson $151.00
Dunkley (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00ArtsParty51.00
Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.17
Derryn Hinch 51.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Independent(JosephToscano)51.00
Labor 4.50LibDem51.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Durack (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Green51.00
Labor 34.00Liberal1.08
National 7.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Eden Monaro (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 2.80Green51.00
Independent (Andrew Thaler) 151.00Independent(DanielGrosmaire)151.00
Independent (Ray Buckley) 151.00Labor1.35
Veterans Party $151.00
Fadden (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst151.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Pauline Hanson 51.00VeteransParty151.00
Fairfax (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Independent(KeithAlexanderCampbell)51.00
Independent (Robert Dickson) 51.00Labor16.00
Online Direct Democracy 51.00PaulineHanson51.00
Farrer (NSW) Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Brian Mills) 151.00MatureAustralia151.00
Fenner (ACT) Bullet Train for Australia 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(AndrewWoodman)101.00
Labor $1.00
Fisher (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 51.00Coalition1.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Mike Jessop) 51.00Labor16.00
Online Direct Democracy 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Veterans Party $51.00
Flinders (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Independent(ShaneWLewis)51.00
Labor 16.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Flynn (QLD) Coalition 1.20FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Independent(DuncanScott)51.00
Independent (Jordan Ryan Puku) 51.00Independent(NathanJoelDavidFletcher)51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor3.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00
Forde (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 51.00Coalition1.40
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (David Wilks) 51.00Labor2.50
Forrest (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Ross Maitland Slater) 51.00Labor16.00
Liberal 1.01National12.00
Outdoor Recreation Party (David Fishlock) 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Fowler (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition21.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Smokers Rights $151.00
Franklin (TAS) Arts Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 16.00Green21.00
Labor $1.00
Fremantle (WA) Coalition 34.00Green7.00
Labor 1.03MatureAustralia51.00
Socialist Alliance $51.00
Gellibrand (VIC) Coalition 26.00Green16.00
Independent (David Tran) 51.00Labor1.00
Gilmore (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.35
Green 51.00Labor3.00
Gippsland (VIC) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Cherie Smith) 51.00Independent(ChristineSindt)51.00
Labor 34.00LibDem51.00
Renewable Energy Party 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Goldstein (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.00
Drug Law Reform 51.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Gorton (VIC) Coalition 16.00Green51.00
Labor $1.00
Grayndler (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00AustralianCyclists101.00
Australian Sex Party 101.00ChristianDemocraticParty151.00
Coalition 31.00DrugLawReform151.00
Green 8.00Labor1.04
Renewable Energy Party 101.00ScienceParty101.00
Socialist Equality $151.00
Greenway (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 151.00Coalition3.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Avtar Singh Billu) 151.00Labor1.35
Lib Dem 101.00ScienceParty151.00
Grey (SA) Coalition 1.40FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Independent(PhillipGourlay)51.00
Labor 26.00NickXenophonTeam2.75
Griffith (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 51.00Coalition5.00
Drug Law Reform 51.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 34.00Independent(KarelBoele)51.00
Labor 1.15LibDem51.00
Groom (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor26.00
Nick Xenophon Team $21.00
Hasluck (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.40
Green 51.00Labor2.75
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Herbert (QLD) Coalition 1.15FamilyFirst51.00
Glenn Lazarus Team 51.00Green51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor5.00
Lib Dem 51.00PUP51.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00
Higgins (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.10
Derryn Hinch 51.00Green6.00
Labor 21.00LibDem51.00
Marriage Equality (Rebecca O 51.00NickXenophonTeam51.00
Hindmarsh (SA) Animal Justice Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 1.75FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor3.00
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Hinkler (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance 51.00Coalition1.08
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Bill Foster) 51.00Labor6.00
Pauline Hanson $21.00
Holt (VIC) Coalition 16.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Hotham (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition16.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Labor 1.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Hughes (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Labor $16.00
Hume (NSW) Bullet Train for Australia 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Citizens Electoral Council 151.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Hunter (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(ArjayMartin)151.00
Independent (Cordelia Troy) 101.00Independent(JohnHarvey)151.00
Independent (John Warham) 151.00Labor1.00
Indi (VIC) Australian Country Party (Julian Fidge) 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Alan James Lappin) 51.00Independent(CathyMcGowan)1.15
Independent (Ray Dyer) 51.00Labor34.00
Lib Dem 51.00Liberal11.00
National 6.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Isaacs (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Jagajaga (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition8.50
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Labor $1.05
Kennedy (QLD) Coalition 8.50FamilyFirst101.00
Green 51.00KAP(BobKatter)1.05
Labor $26.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition8.50
Green 51.00Labor1.05
Science Party $151.00
Kingston (SA) Coalition 12.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor1.15
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Kooyong (VIC) Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Angelina Zubac) 51.00Labor16.00
La Trobe (Vic) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianSexParty51.00
Coalition 1.15DerrynHinch51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Labor 5.00LibDem51.00
Rise Up Australia 51.00Shooters51.00
Lalor (VIC) Australia First 51.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Leichhardt (QLD) Coalition 1.06FamilyFirst34.00
Green 51.00Independent(DanielMcCarthy)17.00
Independent (Michael Newie) 51.00KAP(BobKatter)51.00
Labor 9.00PaulineHanson51.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Lilley (QLD) Coalition 8.50FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor1.05
Lib Dem $51.00
Lindsay (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00AustraliaFirst151.00
Australian Liberty Alliance 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.27DerrynHinch81.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Marcus Cornish) 51.00Labor3.50
Nick Xenophon Team $31.00
Lingiari (NT) Citizens Electoral Council 151.00Coalition4.00
Green 51.00Independent(AlfredGould)151.00
Independent (Braedon Earley) 101.00Independent(MarkGuyula)151.00
Labor 1.22RiseUpAustralia151.00
Shooters $101.00
Longman (QLD) Arts Party 51.00AustralianLibertyAlliance51.00
Coalition 1.10DrugLawReform51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Greg Riddell) 51.00Independent(RobLaw)51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor6.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00
Lyne (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 26.00Independent(BradChristensen)151.00
Independent (Roger John Riach) 151.00Labor26.00
Lyons (TAS) Australian Recreational Fishers Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 3.00Green51.00
Labor 1.35RenewableEnergyParty51.00
Macarthur (NSW) Coalition 2.15Green51.00
Labor 1.65NickXenophonTeam16.00
Mackellar (NSW) Coalition 1.00Green26.00
Independent (Jim Ball) 16.00Independent(JulieHegarty)101.00
Independent (Liam Gavin 51.00Labor21.00
Macquarie (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.52DerrynHinch51.00
Green 26.00Labor2.40
Lib Dem 81.00Shooters101.00
Makin (SA) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition16.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Mark Aldridge) 51.00Labor1.15
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Mallee (VIC) Citizens Electoral Council 51.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Labor21.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Maranoa (QLD) Coalition 1.00CountryMinded51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor21.00
Pauline Hanson 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Maribyrnong (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianChristians51.00
Coalition 16.00Green51.00
Independent (Catherine Cumming) 51.00Labor1.00
Mayo (SA) Coalition 2.50FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor51.00
Lib Dem 51.00NickXenophonTeam1.50
McEwen (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianCountryParty(TraceyAndrew)51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Ross Lee) 51.00Labor1.08
Liberal 7.00National51.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
McMahon (NSW) Australia First 151.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Independent(FadhelShamasha)151.00
Labor $1.00
McMillan (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianChristians51.00
Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Lib Dem 51.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
McPherson (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Independent(RobJones)51.00
Labor $16.00
Melbourne (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianSexParty51.00
Coalition 34.00DrugLawReform51.00
Green 1.05Labor9.00
Melbourne Ports (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition4.00
Drug Law Reform 51.00Green11.00
Independent (John B Myers) 51.00Independent(PeterHolland)51.00
Labor 1.25MarriageEquality(HenryVonDoussa)51.00
Menzies (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Ramon Robinson) 51.00Independent(StephenMayne)16.00
Labor 26.00VoluntaryEuthanasiaParty(JayFranklin)51.00
Mitchell (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Moncrieff (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Moore (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Moreton (QLD) Coalition 5.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00KAP(BobKatter)51.00
Labor 1.03LibDem51.00
Nick Xenophon Team $21.00
Murray (VIC) Australian Country Party (Robert Danieli) 51.00CitizensElectoralCouncil51.00
Green 51.00Independent(AndrewBock)51.00
Independent (Diane Teasdale) 51.00Independent(FernSummer)51.00
Independent (Nigel Hicks) 51.00Labor26.00
Liberal 1.35National3.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
New England (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.25
CountryMinded 101.00Green51.00
Independent (Philip Cox) 101.00Independent(RobTaber)101.00
Independent (Tony Windsor) 3.75Labor34.00
Lib Dem 151.00OnlineDirectDemocracy151.00
Newcastle (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Democratic Labour Party 101.00DrugLawReform151.00
Green 51.00Independent(RodHolding)151.00
Labor $1.00
North Sydney (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Stephen Ruff) 21.00Labor16.00
Lib Dem 51.00ScienceParty151.00
O'Connor (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Green51.00
Labor 21.00Liberal1.10
National 6.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Oxley (QLD) Coalition 8.50FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00KAP(BobKatter)51.00
Labor 1.05PaulineHanson51.00
Page (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 3.50Green51.00
Labor 1.27LibDem51.00
Parkes (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Labor26.00
Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Parramatta (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition6.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Mahesh Raj) 151.00Labor1.10
Lib Dem 51.00OnlineDirectDemocracy151.00
Paterson (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00CitizensElectoralCouncil151.00
Coalition 5.00Green26.00
Labor 1.15PaulineHanson101.00
Rise Up Australia $151.00
Pearce (WA) Green 51.00Labor12.00
Liberal 1.01National16.00
Rise Up Australia $51.00
Perth (WA) Coalition 8.00Green26.00
Labor 1.03LibDem51.00
Online Direct Democracy $51.00
Petrie (QLD) Arts Party 51.00Coalition3.50
Family First 51.00Green41.00
Labor 1.38LibDem51.00
Port Adelaide (SA) Animal Justice Party 51.00ChristianDemocraticParty51.00
Coalition 26.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor1.12
Nick Xenophon Team $5.50
Rankin (QLD) Coalition 16.00ConsumerRights51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor1.00
Lib Dem $51.00
Reid (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.15
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Labor $5.00
Richmond (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 5.00Green11.00
Labor 1.15PaulineHanson101.00
Riverina (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition1.00
Family First 151.00Green51.00
Independent (Richard Foley) 151.00Labor21.00
Robertson (NSW) Anti-Paedophile Party (Lawrie Higgins) 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.25Green51.00
Independent (Van Davy) 34.00Labor3.75
Lib Dem $51.00
Ryan (QLD) Coalition 1.00DemocraticLabourParty51.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Labor 16.00LibDem51.00
Scullin (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition26.00
Drug Law Reform 51.00Green16.00
Labor $1.00
Shortland (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition16.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Solomon (NT) Australia First 151.00CitizensElectoralCouncil151.00
Coalition 3.50Green41.00
HEMP Party 151.00Independent(MarkGarner)101.00
Labor 1.27LibDem151.00
Rise Up Australia 151.00Shooters151.00
Stirling (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.10
Green 51.00Independent(KimMubarak)51.00
Labor 6.00RiseUpAustralia51.00
Sturt (SA) Animal Justice Party 51.00Coalition1.15
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (Neil Aitchison) 51.00Labor11.00
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Swan (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.30
Green 51.00Labor3.00
Sydney (NSW) Animal Justice Party 151.00AustralianSexParty101.00
Christian Democratic Party 151.00Coalition34.00
Green 8.00Labor1.05
Online Direct Democracy 151.00ScienceParty151.00
Socialist Alliance 151.00SustainableAustralia151.00
Tangney (WA) Australian Christians 51.00Coalition1.00
Green 51.00Independent(DennisJensen)16.00
Labor $34.00
Wakefield (SA) Christian Democratic Party 51.00Coalition16.00
Family First 51.00Green51.00
Independent (John Bolton) 51.00Labor1.15
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Wannon (VIC) Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Bernardine Atkinson) 51.00Independent(MichaelJohnMcCluskey)51.00
Labor $34.00
Warringah (NSW) Arts Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.02Green51.00
Independent (David Barrow) 151.00Independent(JamesMathison)9.00
Independent (Tony Backhouse) 151.00Labor21.00
Nick Xenophon Team 11.00ScienceParty151.00
Watson (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition21.00
Green 51.00Labor1.00
Online Direct Democracy 151.00ScienceParty151.00
Wentworth (NSW) Arts Party 151.00ChristianDemocraticParty101.00
Coalition 1.00Green51.00
Independent (Allen David) 151.00Independent(MarcAussieStone)1001.00
Labor 11.00ScienceParty151.00
Werriwa (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition5.00
Green 51.00Labor1.12
Whitlam (NSW) Christian Democratic Party 101.00Coalition34.00
Green 16.00Labor1.00
Non Custodial Parents Party $151.00
Wide Bay (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Glenn Lazarus Team 51.00Green34.00
KAP (Bob Katter) 51.00Labor16.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00
Wills (VIC) Animal Justice Party 51.00AustralianSexParty51.00
Coalition 34.00DrugLawReform51.00
Green 5.00Independent(FrancescoTimpano)51.00
Labor 1.15RenewableEnergyParty51.00
Socialist Alliance 51.00SocialistEquality51.00
Wright (QLD) Coalition 1.00FamilyFirst51.00
Green 51.00Labor16.00
Lib Dem 51.00MatureAustralia51.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00

Complete list of Seat Probabilities

Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT 2016 Favourite
Calwell (VIC) 3.74 0.00 1.87 0.00 0.00 94.39 0.00 Labor
Batman (VIC) 12.50 2.34 40.87 0.00 0.00 44.28 0.00 Labor
Wills (VIC) 11.10 2.38 16.18 0.00 0.00 70.34 0.00 Labor
Fremantle (WA) 3.32 2.49 12.08 0.00 0.00 82.11 0.00 Labor
Sydney (NSW) 4.29 2.54 10.81 0.00 0.00 82.36 0.00 Labor
Melbourne (VIC) 5.11 2.55 82.69 0.00 0.00 9.65 0.00 Green
Whitlam (NSW) 1.49 2.66 5.64 0.00 0.00 90.21 0.00 Labor
Grayndler (NSW) 5.58 2.72 10.55 0.00 0.00 81.15 0.00 Labor
Port Adelaide (SA) 4.94 3.23 1.65 0.00 0.00 74.93 15.26 Labor
Scullin (VIC) 3.44 3.38 5.49 0.00 0.00 87.69 0.00 Labor
Gellibrand (VIC) 1.75 3.44 5.58 0.00 0.00 89.23 0.00 Labor
Cunningham (NSW) 2.14 3.56 1.82 0.00 0.00 92.48 0.00 Labor
Denison (TAS) 3.36 4.08 1.68 85.54 0.00 5.35 0.00 Independent
Watson (NSW) 2.12 4.37 1.80 0.00 0.00 91.70 0.00 Labor
Fowler (NSW) 1.53 4.40 1.81 0.00 0.00 92.27 0.00 Labor
Wakefield (SA) 4.86 5.16 1.62 0.00 0.00 71.84 16.52 Labor
Makin (SA) 4.86 5.16 1.62 0.00 0.00 71.84 16.52 Labor
Rankin (QLD) 5.07 5.39 1.69 0.00 1.69 86.15 0.00 Labor
Franklin (TAS) 3.42 5.44 4.15 0.00 0.00 87.00 0.00 Labor
Hotham (VIC) 5.16 5.48 1.72 0.00 0.00 87.64 0.00 Labor
Corio (VIC) 6.87 5.48 1.72 0.00 0.00 85.93 0.00 Labor
Maribyrnong (VIC) 5.16 5.48 1.72 0.00 0.00 87.64 0.00 Labor
Hunter (NSW) 3.54 5.58 1.75 0.00 0.00 89.13 0.00 Labor
Lalor (VIC) 3.50 5.58 1.75 0.00 0.00 89.17 0.00 Labor
Holt (VIC) 3.50 5.58 1.75 0.00 0.00 89.17 0.00 Labor
Canberra (ACT) 0.88 5.59 4.26 0.00 0.00 89.27 0.00 Labor
Newcastle (NSW) 2.97 5.61 1.76 0.00 0.00 89.66 0.00 Labor
Isaacs (VIC) 1.78 5.68 1.78 0.00 0.00 90.76 0.00 Labor
Fenner (ACT) 1.80 5.68 1.78 0.00 0.00 90.74 0.00 Labor
Chifley (NSW) 1.51 5.69 1.79 0.00 0.00 91.01 0.00 Labor
Blaxland (NSW) 1.51 5.69 1.79 0.00 0.00 91.01 0.00 Labor
McMahon (NSW) 1.21 5.71 1.79 0.00 0.00 91.29 0.00 Labor
Shortland (NSW) 0.91 5.73 1.80 0.00 0.00 91.57 0.00 Labor
Gorton (VIC) 0.00 5.78 1.81 0.00 0.00 92.41 0.00 Labor
Kingston (SA) 1.64 6.99 1.64 0.00 0.00 72.94 16.78 Labor
Oxley (QLD) 3.41 10.24 1.71 0.00 1.71 82.93 0.00 Labor
Kennedy (QLD) 0.87 10.34 1.72 0.00 83.69 3.38 0.00 Katter
Jagajaga (VIC) 3.47 10.42 1.74 0.00 0.00 84.37 0.00 Labor
Brand (WA) 3.47 10.42 1.74 0.00 0.00 84.37 0.00 Labor
Lilley (QLD) 3.47 10.42 1.74 0.00 0.00 84.37 0.00 Labor
Ballarat (VIC) 2.29 10.52 1.69 0.00 0.00 85.50 0.00 Labor
Barton (NSW) 2.08 10.57 1.76 0.00 0.00 85.59 0.00 Labor
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 1.49 10.64 1.77 0.00 0.00 86.10 0.00 Labor
Perth (WA) 3.34 10.65 3.28 0.00 0.00 82.73 0.00 Labor
McEwen (VIC) 8.13 13.47 1.63 0.00 0.00 76.77 0.00 Labor
Bruce (VIC) 6.68 14.20 1.67 0.00 0.00 77.45 0.00 Labor
Blair (QLD) 3.98 14.39 1.69 0.00 0.00 79.94 0.00 Labor
Parramatta (NSW) 4.31 14.56 1.71 0.00 0.00 79.41 0.00 Labor
Moreton (QLD) 3.02 15.42 1.51 0.00 1.51 74.86 3.67 Labor
Griffith (QLD) 8.19 16.71 2.46 0.00 0.00 72.64 0.00 Labor
Richmond (NSW) 2.23 16.85 7.66 0.00 0.00 73.26 0.00 Labor
Paterson (NSW) 2.90 17.53 3.37 0.00 0.00 76.21 0.00 Labor
Werriwa (NSW) 0.88 17.82 1.75 0.00 0.00 79.55 0.00 Labor
Bendigo (VIC) 4.86 18.83 1.61 0.00 0.00 74.70 0.00 Labor
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 7.91 20.18 7.34 0.00 0.00 64.57 0.00 Labor
Indi (VIC) 7.69 20.21 1.54 68.24 0.00 2.31 0.00 Independent
Lingiari (NT) 4.08 22.02 1.73 0.00 0.00 72.18 0.00 Labor
Solomon (NT) 3.46 24.91 2.13 0.86 0.00 68.64 0.00 Labor
Adelaide (SA) 2.45 24.99 1.62 0.00 0.00 63.44 7.50 Labor
Page (NSW) 3.20 25.31 1.74 0.00 0.00 69.75 0.00 Labor
Petrie (QLD) 5.38 26.13 2.23 0.00 0.00 66.26 0.00 Labor
Dobell (NSW) 2.65 27.02 1.75 0.00 0.00 68.58 0.00 Labor
Lyons (TAS) 5.10 28.92 1.70 0.00 0.00 64.27 0.00 Labor
Chisholm (VIC) 5.13 29.06 1.71 0.00 0.00 64.10 0.00 Labor
Greenway (NSW) 3.22 29.50 1.74 0.00 0.00 65.55 0.00 Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 3.71 30.77 1.69 0.00 0.00 63.83 0.00 Labor
Burt (WA) 3.49 32.96 1.75 0.00 0.00 61.80 0.00 Labor
Mayo (SA) 3.42 34.93 1.71 0.00 0.00 1.71 58.22 NXT
Macarthur (NSW) 0.00 40.33 1.70 0.00 0.00 52.55 5.42 Labor
Capricornia (QLD) 1.16 42.85 1.72 0.00 2.58 51.68 0.00 Labor
Cowan (WA) 6.65 45.84 1.66 0.00 0.00 45.84 0.00 Coalition, Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) 4.97 48.30 1.66 0.00 0.00 28.17 16.90 Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 4.98 56.16 3.28 0.00 0.00 35.57 0.00 Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 6.46 56.84 1.62 0.00 0.00 35.07 0.00 Coalition
Forde (QLD) 4.93 59.89 1.64 0.00 0.00 33.54 0.00 Coalition
Grey (SA) 3.34 60.78 1.67 0.00 0.00 3.27 30.94 Coalition
Cowper (NSW) 2.01 62.11 1.70 31.62 0.00 2.56 0.00 Coalition
Brisbane (QLD) 2.88 62.65 2.58 0.00 0.00 31.89 0.00 Coalition
Hasluck (WA) 3.45 62.84 1.72 0.00 0.00 31.99 0.00 Coalition
Flynn (QLD) 7.52 63.91 1.50 0.00 1.50 25.56 0.00 Coalition
Bass (TAS) 5.10 64.27 1.70 0.00 0.00 28.92 0.00 Coalition
Barker (SA) 1.70 64.31 1.70 0.00 0.00 3.34 28.94 Coalition
Lindsay (NSW) 5.73 65.98 1.64 0.00 0.00 23.94 2.70 Coalition
Boothby (SA) 6.52 66.49 1.63 0.00 0.00 3.20 22.16 Coalition
Gilmore (NSW) 0.90 67.12 1.78 0.00 0.00 30.20 0.00 Coalition
Swan (WA) 1.72 67.37 1.72 0.00 0.00 29.19 0.00 Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 12.52 68.19 1.56 0.00 0.00 17.73 0.00 Coalition
New England (NSW) 4.52 68.46 1.68 22.82 0.00 2.52 0.00 Coalition
Robertson (NSW) 5.69 69.46 1.70 0.00 0.00 23.15 0.00 Coalition
Sturt (SA) 4.75 70.19 1.58 0.00 0.00 7.34 16.14 Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 11.19 70.90 1.60 0.00 0.00 16.31 0.00 Coalition
Deakin (VIC) 5.07 71.86 2.54 0.00 0.00 20.53 0.00 Coalition
Herbert (QLD) 8.12 72.05 1.62 0.00 1.62 16.57 0.00 Coalition
Longman (QLD) 10.96 72.60 1.57 0.00 1.57 13.31 0.00 Coalition
Dawson (QLD) 1.98 72.94 1.67 0.00 2.08 21.33 0.00 Coalition
Banks (NSW) 2.94 74.13 1.74 0.00 0.00 21.18 0.00 Coalition
Higgins (VIC) 6.42 74.43 13.65 0.00 0.00 3.90 1.61 Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 2.75 74.70 1.64 0.00 0.00 20.91 0.00 Coalition
Hinkler (QLD) 8.73 75.98 1.61 0.00 0.00 13.68 0.00 Coalition
Leichhardt (QLD) 11.85 76.03 1.58 0.00 1.58 8.95 0.00 Coalition
Warringah (NSW) 2.83 76.23 1.52 8.64 0.00 3.70 7.07 Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 11.19 77.63 1.60 0.00 0.00 9.59 0.00 Coalition
Reid (NSW) 1.49 78.64 1.77 0.00 0.00 18.09 0.00 Coalition
Stirling (WA) 5.10 78.76 1.70 0.00 0.00 14.44 0.00 Coalition
Dickson (QLD) 3.40 80.17 1.73 0.00 0.00 14.70 0.00 Coalition
Aston (VIC) 4.15 80.17 1.65 0.00 0.00 14.03 0.00 Coalition
Bowman (QLD) 1.19 82.00 1.77 0.00 0.00 15.03 0.00 Coalition
Casey (VIC) 5.12 82.93 1.71 0.00 0.00 10.24 0.00 Coalition
Fisher (QLD) 9.81 83.34 1.64 0.00 0.00 5.21 0.00 Coalition
Menzies (VIC) 11.76 83.39 1.64 0.00 0.00 3.21 0.00 Coalition
Gippsland (VIC) 11.58 84.28 1.65 0.00 0.00 2.48 0.00 Coalition
Murray (VIC) 10.81 84.61 1.54 0.00 0.00 3.03 0.00 Coalition
McMillan (VIC) 8.31 84.72 1.66 0.00 0.00 5.30 0.00 Coalition
Fairfax (QLD) 8.31 84.72 1.66 0.00 0.00 5.30 0.00 Coalition
Mackellar (NSW) 7.82 84.87 3.27 0.00 0.00 4.05 0.00 Coalition
North Sydney (NSW) 7.71 85.28 1.67 0.00 0.00 5.34 0.00 Coalition
Wide Bay (QLD) 5.03 85.43 2.52 0.00 1.68 5.34 0.00 Coalition
Maranoa (QLD) 6.74 85.81 1.68 0.00 1.68 4.09 0.00 Coalition
Wright (QLD) 6.76 86.15 1.69 0.00 0.00 5.39 0.00 Coalition
Forrest (WA) 6.36 86.99 1.59 0.00 0.00 5.06 0.00 Coalition
Wentworth (NSW) 2.70 87.61 1.72 0.00 0.00 7.97 0.00 Coalition
Flinders (VIC) 5.16 87.64 1.72 0.00 0.00 5.48 0.00 Coalition
Goldstein (VIC) 5.16 87.64 1.72 0.00 0.00 5.48 0.00 Coalition
Ryan (QLD) 5.16 87.64 1.72 0.00 0.00 5.48 0.00 Coalition
Tangney (WA) 1.74 88.40 1.74 5.53 0.00 2.60 0.00 Coalition
Groom (QLD) 1.74 88.86 1.74 0.00 0.00 3.42 4.24 Coalition
Bennelong (NSW) 3.80 88.89 1.74 0.00 0.00 5.56 0.00 Coalition
Calare (NSW) 3.22 89.03 0.88 0.00 0.00 4.24 2.62 Coalition
McPherson (QLD) 3.50 89.17 1.75 0.00 0.00 5.58 0.00 Coalition
Curtin (WA) 3.50 89.17 1.75 0.00 0.00 5.58 0.00 Coalition
Pearce (WA) 1.67 89.57 1.67 0.00 0.00 7.09 0.00 Coalition
Fadden (QLD) 2.95 89.68 1.76 0.00 0.00 5.61 0.00 Coalition
Berowra (NSW) 2.39 90.20 1.77 0.00 0.00 5.64 0.00 Coalition
Cook (NSW) 1.49 90.21 5.64 0.00 0.00 2.66 0.00 Coalition
Mallee (VIC) 3.55 90.37 1.77 0.00 0.00 4.31 0.00 Coalition
Hume (NSW) 2.10 90.47 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.66 0.00 Coalition
Bradfield (NSW) 2.10 90.47 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.66 0.00 Coalition
Kooyong (VIC) 1.78 90.76 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.68 0.00 Coalition
Moncrieff (QLD) 1.78 90.76 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.68 0.00 Coalition
Moore (WA) 1.78 90.76 1.78 0.00 0.00 5.68 0.00 Coalition
Lyne (NSW) 2.11 90.90 3.50 0.00 0.00 3.50 0.00 Coalition
O'Connor (WA) 3.32 91.00 1.66 0.00 0.00 4.03 0.00 Coalition
Canning (WA) 1.73 91.00 1.73 0.00 0.00 5.53 0.00 Coalition
Hughes (NSW) 1.51 91.01 1.79 0.00 0.00 5.69 0.00 Coalition
Mitchell (NSW) 0.91 91.57 1.80 0.00 0.00 5.73 0.00 Coalition
Riverina (NSW) 2.12 91.70 1.80 0.00 0.00 4.37 0.00 Coalition
Wannon (VIC) 3.61 91.88 1.80 0.00 0.00 2.71 0.00 Coalition
Durack (WA) 3.39 92.37 1.69 0.00 0.00 2.54 0.00 Coalition
Parkes (NSW) 1.54 93.05 1.83 0.00 0.00 3.58 0.00 Coalition
Farrer (NSW) 2.84 95.29 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Coalition

Likely election outcome charts from Monte Carlo simulation of longshot adjusted individual seat probabilities.




Counts of seat favourites and longshot adjusted probability sum.



Individual seats