Day 14 - 2025 Federal Election

I want to talk about "Others", but first a quick look at the betting market, which now has the probability of a Labor win at 76 per cent. The odds are $4.00 (for the Coalition) and $1.26 (Labor).

Others

Yesterday I got a twitter comment on the party ahead count across the 150 individual seat markets. 

The comment was, "this is a drop of 6 independents which would seem unlikely." So let's look at it.

First some history; immediately after the 2022 election there were 16 cross bench seats:

• the Greens won four seats - Melbourne, Griffith, Ryan and Brisbane.
• the Katter Australia Party won one - Kennedy (Bob Katter)
• the Centre Alliance won one - Mayo (Rebekha Sharkie), and
• independent candidates won 10 - Clark (Andrew Wilkie), Warringah (Zali Steggall), Indi (Helen Haines), Curtain (Kate Chaney), Goldstein (Zoe Daniel), Fowler (Dai Le), Kooyong (Monique Ryan), Mackeller (Sophie Scamps), Wentworth (Allegra Spender), and North Sydney (Lylea Tink).

Since the 2022 Election: 

• Three Coalition members of the House joined the cross bench on the seats of Moore (Ian Goodenough), Calare (Andrew Gee), and Monash (Russell Broadbend). All three are standing for re-election.
• The seat of North Sydney was abolished for the 2025 election (with a significant part of the former seat moving to Bradfield). The former member for North Sydney did not stand for re-election. 

The betting market has the Greens winning Melbourne and Griffith. They are just behind in a close three-way contest in Brisbane. And a little further behind in Ryan. 

The other seat where the punters are doubtful, but the Greens may have a chance are Wills and Richmond.

The Katter and Centre Alliance mini-parties look like winning their seats.

The punters do not think the three former Coalition independents will win.

For the remaining independents, they are ahead in: Wentworth (Spender), Warringah (Steggall), Mackeller (Scamps), Indi (Haines), Goldstein (Daniel), Fowler (Le) and Clark (Wilkie).

The seats where independents are competitive, but not ahead, according to the punters are: Cowper (Caz Helse), Wannon (Alex Dyson), Kooyong (Monique Ryan), Bradfield (Nicolette Boele) and Curtin (Kate Chaney). 

So the six independents where the punters are not convinced are

• three of the so called teals: Kylea Tink (seat abolished/not contesting), Monique Ryan and Kate Chaney, and
• three of the recently-Coalition-turned-independents: Andrew Gee, Ian Goodenough and Russell Broadbent.

Nonetheless, the Independents are potentially quite competitive (> 40 per cent probability of winning) in the following seats: Cowper, Wannon, Kooyong (Ryan) and Bradfield (includes part of Tink's former seat) and Curtin (Chaney). Of the recently-Coalition-turned-independents, Andrew Gee is best placed with punters giving jim a 38 per cent probability of winning.

Because first-past-the-post counts can miss the underlying probabilities, I also publish a probability sum chart to consider how the election might unfold. Here I report that the punters think the independents will probably replicate the 10 seats they won in 2022.