Yesterday a Roy Morgan poll was released that had Labor on 53.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. Morgan may have changed its polling approach in February 2025. Historically, their polls have been around the trend of the other polling firms. Now they appear to be consistently above the trend output from other pollsters. Out of an abundance of caution, I have set the post 15 February 2025 polls from Roy Morgan as a new series. Of note, while the earlier Morgan series tracks pretty close to the aggregation, the later Morgan polls track 2.2 percentage points more favourable to Labor on average than the aggregation. Overall, this change moves the aggregation around 0.3 percentage points less favourable to Labor.
The seats where punters have changed the favourite are:
No comments:
Post a Comment