Yesterday brought us a new Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor's favour in two party preferred terms. If repeated at an election, this would deliver a similar result to the 2022 election. Adding the latest Newspoll to my Gaussian Random Walk (GRW) Bayesian model to aggregate polls, it looks like Labor leads with around 51 to 49 per cent of the two party preferred vote. If replicated at an election, this is most likely to result in a minority Labor government.
Primary vote intentions are as follows:
The voting intention (VI) comparison with the previous election is instructive.
While Others is around the same primary vote level as the last election, the aggregate polls show that One Nation is significantly up on the previous election, meaning that other parties and independents are down.
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