Day 26 - 2025 Federal Election

Early voting begins today. You can use this link to find out where to vote (the information on early voting is towards the bottom of the page).

Today there were no new polls, and little change on the betting market. So lets take the time to look at the independents that the punters think will be elected. I will rank each seat according to the probabilities the punters give to an independent win. 

What is interesting to note:

• Many of the (so called) Teals from the 2022 Election are rated pretty close to even money.
• The three formerly Coalition independents are given slim or no real prospect of being re-elected.
• There are quite a few new names with some prospect of being elected. 

Pretty sure (>= 80 per cent probability)

More likely than not (between 60 and 80 per cent probability)

Close to even (between 40 and 60 per cent)

Possible but not likely (between 20 and 40 per cent)

Not convinced (between 10 and 20 per cent)

Finally, just because I will get asked about this former-Coalition turned independent.