Today's Newspoll 52/48 in Labor's favour on the two-party preferred (2pp) metric is the same as the last Newspoll. My Bayesian models assume that if the national voting intention for Labor is 52 per cent, we will see a smattering of 53 and 54 polls, as well as a smattering of 51 and 50 polla. With the exception of Roy Morgan, we are not seeing polls above 52.5. And I start to worry when the polls do not have the variability I would otherwise expect. I am not yet concerned, nor am I alarmed, but I am watching.
My Bayesian aggregation of Labor's 2pp is 51.1 per cent (based on pollster estimates). It is lower that the most recent polls, because they are clumped together, and it is balancing the absence of polls above the median with the earlier historical polls. For Roy Morgan, I am adjusting its recent polls as a separate series, because the relationship to the trend suddenly changed, suggesting a change in collection practice that impacts on the house-effects part of the model.
My other point of interest is primary votes. The large share of votes going outside of the major parties make it harder to predict the election outcome from the 2pp pendulum. The Coalition's primary vote has collapsed over recent months, but Labor's has not risen by a similar amount. One Nation is up on its 2022 election result. Independents (Others - One Nation in my charts) are therefore down on their 2022 result. Greens are not much changed.
on 2022
Thanks for doing this.
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