Today a YouGov poll was released. It had Labor on 52.5 per cent of the two party preferred vote share: a better result for Labor than the 2022 election. This poll is up 1.5 percentage points on the previous YouGov poll from two weeks ago. Of the 10 polls released since the election was called, Labor has been the winner in eight, one was a tie and one had the Coalition ahead.
When it comes to poll aggregation, there is a small difference in results based on whether I use the two-party preferred estimates from pollsters (my preference), or calculate a two party estimate myself based on the primary vote estimate and the preference flows at the 2022 election.
Also, if I use a localised regression, there is a difference in poll aggregation outcomes. But note: localised regression is a simpler model, and does not take account of house effects nor methodology changes from the polling firms.
Turning quickly to primary votes, the Coalition's decline continues. The minor parties and independent vote share (Others) increased (here it should be noted this can be largely attributable to One Nation).
Finally, a quick look at the attitudinal polling.
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