It is unusual for a second term government to outperform its first term 2pp vote share. Today's polls suggest it might be possible for this Labor government.
Yesterday, I said for Labor to have a national 2pp voting intention around 52 percent I would need to see polls above and below that level. Today we have a Resolve Strategic poll with Labor on 53.5 per cent and a Roy Morgan poll with Labor on 54.5 per cent. Labor has the possibility of winning a second term majority government (the slight problem with this story is the reduced primary vote for Labor and the increased Greens and minor party vote compared with the last election).
In aggregate, I now have Labor on 51.6 per cent of the 2pp vote.
The non-major vote share at the last election was a record 31.7 per cent of the primary vote. The latest polls suggest this will increase to 32,6 percent
And for the first time since I have been producing this chart, the Coalition's primary vote is below where it was at last election.
Many thanks Mark! You say a second term government increasing its 2PP is unusual in Australian Federal politics ; indeed, I can’t think of it happening before.
ReplyDeleteThe nearest I can think of are Curtin (1943) and Lyon (1931) who both increased in their first election but only after coming to power mid-term as a minority government. Is there an instance I have missed ?